譯文（字數 7195）：

重新評估人口對醫療保健支出的影響:

證據來自臺灣

不同于之前的研究,我們認為影響醫療保健支出的不僅僅是人口的老齡化,而且隨著人口預期壽命變量的變化都可以解釋醫療保健支出的變化。從1960年到2006年，我們通過協整技術審視了人口變化在臺灣醫療保健支出中的影響。我們統計發現收入、人口老齡化,預期壽命和執業醫師的數量對臺灣的醫療保健支出有顯著的和長期的經濟關系。而除了生活開支外的所有變量對衛生保健支出均產生積極的影響。另外，壓縮的發病率假說則表明老年人變得比過去更健康。

 [關鍵詞]衛生保健開支、人口老齡化、壽命、壓縮的發病率

一、介紹

在過去的幾十年中,大多數發達國家都經歷過重大的人口結構變化,其中人口衰老可能是其最重要的改變。當然，造成人口衰老的原因可能有兩個，一個是出生率的下降,另一個是預期壽命(LE)的自然延伸。衛生政策制定者擔心, 老年人的數量不斷增加將加大對醫療衛生支出的需要，并且大多數人直觀地認為，這些支出上升與LE有關。也因此，預期壽命成為一個關于衛生保健支出的重要問題。

外文原文（字符數 33385）：

he Geneva Papers, 2008, 33, (728–743)

r 2008 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics 1018-5895/08 

Re-estimating the Demographic Impact on Health Care Expenditure:

Evidence from Taiwan

Yung-Ming Shiu and Mei-Ching  Chiu

Department of Business Administration, National Cheng Kung University, 1, University Road, Tainan, Taiwan.

E-mail: yungming@mail.ncku.edu.tw

Unlike prior studies, we consider not only population ageing but also life expectancy as demographic variables that may explain the variations in health care expenditure. Cointegration techniques are employed to re-examine the effect of demographic changes on the Taiwan health care expenditure from 1960 to 2006. We find that the Taiwan health care expenditure, income, population ageing, life expectancy and the number of practicing physicians have statistically significant and long-run economic relationships. All variables have a positive impact on health care expenditure besides life expenditure. Our empirical results support the compression of morbidity hypothesis, suggesting that older people become healthier than in the past and that health care expenditure would decrease with life expectancy. Several implications for policymaking and future research are   offered.

The Geneva Papers (2008) 33, 728–743.    doi:10.1057/gpp.2008.26

Keywords: health care expenditure; population demographic impact; population ageing; life expectancy; longevity; compression of morbidity

Introduction

Over the past decades, most developed countries have experienced significant changes in their population structure, with ageing perhaps being the most important change. There are two possible reasons for this, one is the decline in the birth rate and the other is the natural extension of life expectancy (denoted as LE). Health policymakers are concerned that the increasing numbers of older people will increase the need for health expenditure and most people intuitively believe that such expenditure rises along with LE. Longevity has thus becomes an important issue with regard to health care spending.